Saudi Arabia's non-oil investment plan is set to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with 73% of that capital directed away from oil, according to a Goldman Sachs report on the kingdom's "capex super-cycle." The analysis signals one of the most ambitious economic diversification drives in the Middle East.
Goldman Sachs Flags a Capex Super-Cycle
The Goldman Sachs report identifies clean energy, mining, and logistics as the primary beneficiaries of the kingdom's spending push. Saudi Arabia is keen to establish itself as a world hub across all three sectors as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 agenda.
Clean energy alone is expected to attract $235 billion in investment — up sharply from an earlier estimate of $148 billion. The increase is driven by renewables expansion, as the kingdom more than doubles its 2030 solar energy capacity target from 58.7 GW to a range of 100–130 GW. A pipeline of 11.2 GW of solar photovoltaic projects and a further 16.7 GW of combined solar and wind projects are already planned.
Oil Capex Cut by $40 Billion
Faisal Al Azmeh, head of equity research for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Goldman Sachs, noted that Saudi Arabia's energy ministry is leading a deliberate reduction in oil sector capital expenditure — cutting it by $40 billion between 2024 and 2028. Despite that shift, natural gas remains central to the kingdom's decarbonization and diversification strategy.
Mining and Logistics in Focus
Saudi Arabia's non-oil investment plan also targets the mining sector. The kingdom aims to issue more than 30 mining exploration licenses in the current year and launch a 182-mineral exploration incentive program designed to attract both local and international investors.
Metals, minerals, transport, and logistics are collectively earmarked to receive around $400 billion as part of the broader non-oil investment push.
Budget Deficit and Funding Gap
The kingdom's budget deficit is expected to reach 4.3% of GDP this year, reflecting higher spending commitments alongside declining oil revenues. Goldman Sachs estimates a funding gap of approximately $25 billion per year for the capex program and notes that Saudi Arabia will need to tap alternative financing sources — including international capital markets and sovereign wealth fund leverage — to sustain the investment cycle.
Goldman Sachs describes the capex super-cycle as a sustained, long-term theme for the kingdom, not a short-term stimulus. The trajectory, analysts say, is likely to continue well beyond 2030.
