The UAE's GDP growth in 2025 is expected to exceed 5 percent, according to Michael Bolliger, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets at UBS Global Wealth Management. Speaking in an online press briefing with the Emirates News Agency (WAM), Bolliger aligned his outlook with the International Monetary Fund's projection of 5.1 percent GDP growth for the UAE in 2025, following an estimated 4 percent expansion in 2024.
Global Factors Driving UAE Economy Growth in 2025
Bolliger highlighted several international trends shaping the economic outlook for GCC countries. Chief among them are oil production dynamics and OPEC policy decisions, which continue to directly influence fiscal revenues across the Gulf. He also pointed to China's economic stimulus announcements, shifts in global monetary parity, and reductions in reserve requirement rates as forces expected to lift global markets — and the UAE in particular.
These factors, he said, will benefit the UAE both directly and indirectly, reinforcing its growth trajectory across both oil and non-oil sectors.
US Federal Reserve Policy a Key Variable
Bolliger also flagged US Federal Reserve decisions as a central driver of the economic environment heading into 2025. He projected that interest rates would be reduced by approximately 150 basis points by the end of 2025. Such cuts are expected to create more favorable conditions for investment and capital flows, benefiting economies like the UAE that are deeply integrated into global financial networks.
Lower borrowing costs globally tend to support asset valuations, ease financing conditions, and stimulate the kind of trade and investment activity that a diversifying economy like the UAE depends on.
UAE's Economic Resilience and GCC Standing
The projected growth rate underscores the UAE's economic resilience and its strengthening position among GCC nations. The country's ability to balance its hydrocarbon base with rapid non-oil sector expansion — spanning finance, tourism, logistics, and technology — is central to sustaining this momentum.
Bolliger's forecast reflects confidence that the UAE will continue leveraging favorable global economic trends for domestic development, maintaining its trajectory as one of the fastest-growing advanced economies in the region.
