The UAE will experience increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events in coming decades, a leading climate scientist has warned — a finding backed by IPCC reports and confirmed by the record-breaking April 2024 Dubai floods that brought a year's worth of rainfall in a single day.
The Increasing Trend in UAE Extreme Weather Events
Dr Diana Francis, Senior Research Scientist and Head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab at Khalifa University, says the UAE will experience more frequent extreme weather events in future. As the world warms, the boundary between winter and spring is shifting, resulting in heavier spring rainfall and longer, hotter summers across the region.
Dr Francis made these findings in an exclusive interview with Khaleej Times, drawing on her research into climate patterns across the Middle East and North Africa.
April 2024 Dubai Floods: A Direct Consequence of Global Warming
Dr Francis noted that the record rainfall recorded in the UAE on April 16, 2024 is a direct consequence of global warming. She cited IPCC reports, which state that heatwaves and extreme downpours become more frequent and more intense as global temperatures rise. These changes are driven by shifts in atmospheric moisture and weather patterns across different geographical zones.
The April 2024 event was the heaviest rainfall recorded in the UAE since 1949, with some areas receiving more than 250mm in 24 hours. Dubai International Airport saw over 1,500 flights delayed or cancelled.
Poleward Climate Shift: What It Means for the Arabian Peninsula
Dr Francis's recent research paper on MENA climate patterns projects that the region will generally continue to warm and become drier, with more extreme weather events expected by the end of this century. Within that broad trend, the picture varies by location:
- The UAE and the southern Arabian Peninsula are projected to experience more spring rainfall events, followed by increasingly severe summer heatwaves. - Northern parts of Saudi Arabia and neighbouring countries are expected to face greater drought as climate zones shift poleward due to global warming.
These projections are consistent with global climate models and reinforce the urgency of adaptation planning across the Gulf.
Climate Change Response: Adaptation and International Collaboration
On long-term solutions, Dr Francis emphasised international collaboration and knowledge sharing as essential tools for addressing the climate challenge. Scientific research, she stressed, is critical for designing effective adaptation strategies.
The UAE has already begun taking steps, with efforts underway to evaluate and improve the resilience of infrastructure against extreme weather events. These efforts are targeted at ensuring there is a firm scientific basis on which to build future strategy to alleviate the effects of climate change.
Dr Francis emphasised that future resilience efforts must be grounded in solid scientific data and research to maintain sustainability in an era of increasingly extreme weather.
